The Bayesian Trap

This is a neat explanation of how the bayesian theorem works applied to real-world examples.

But it is also saying that “experimentation is key”, and that beliefs that you 100% believe in (like not feeling good about yourself, or earning a low wage) are not necessarily true, and that you might just have convinced yourself of them by (accidentally?) not seeing different examples.

Hm, that doesn’t sound quite right. But this quote might explain it better:

I didn’t say it explicitly in the video, but in my view the Bayesian trap is interpreting events that happen repeatedly as events that happen inevitably. They may be inevitable OR they may simply be the outcome of a series of steps, which likely depend on our behaviour. Yet our expectation of a certain outcome often leads us to behave just as we always have which only ensures that outcome. To escape the Bayesian trap, we must be willing to experiment.

In any case, the video was quite interesting, and the scenery kinda dream-like.